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Smoking rates in the United States continue to decline, with significant progress observed among younger adults, according to a recent study from the University of California San Diego. The research, published in JAMA Network Open, indicates that younger generations are quitting smoking at unprecedented rates, particularly in states that previously had high smoking prevalence.
The study analyzed data from 1.77 million respondents gathered from the Tobacco Use Supplements to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey between June and October 2024. While cigarette use has decreased across all age demographics, the decline is markedly faster among younger adults compared to those over 50, who are quitting at a slower pace.
Researchers predict that if current trends continue, the national smoking rate could drop below five percent by 2035. This decline marks a significant milestone in a long-standing public health effort to reduce smoking-related illnesses, such as lung cancer and heart disease. However, the slow progress among older smokers, particularly in states with historically high smoking rates, suggests that the health benefits may take longer to materialize for this demographic.
The trajectory of smoking in America has shifted dramatically over the decades. In 1955, nearly 57 percent of adults smoked, a figure that halved by the year 2000 and halved again by 2022. The states that have seen the most substantial reductions in smoking rates also report notable decreases in lung cancer mortality, although these changes often lag by about 16 years.
Despite these advancements, researchers express concern over the rise of e-cigarette use among teenagers, which presents a new public health challenge. While smoking rates are declining, the increasing popularity of vaping among youth raises questions about future nicotine addiction.
To sustain progress in reducing smoking rates, experts emphasize the need to enhance cessation efforts for older adults, address the growing trend of vaping, and adapt public health strategies accordingly. The ongoing decline in cigarette smoking is viewed as a significant public health success, providing an optimistic outlook for a healthier, smoke-free future for upcoming generations.
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